The Road to Official Monarchy

Anar Rzalı

           The adverse effect of failed Turkish coup on Azerbaijani domestic policy and the road to official monarchy.                                    

On the night of July 15 - 16, some groups of the Turkish army attempted an armed coup. According to information shared by the Turkish Foreign Ministry on July 18th, 290 people were killed in the ensuing chaos, more than 5000 people have been detained and thousands of others forced to resign.

Turkish president blamed Fethullah Gulen for leading a coup against his government who has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999. Erdogan demanded U.S either arrest him or hand over to Turkey. Not being satisfied with that he asked for other countries around the world to close Gulen-linked companies, schools and universities. While Kyrgyzstan, Jordan, Kenya, Indonesia, Nigeria pushed back on Turkish requests, states like Somali, Jordan, Azerbaijan answered positively. 

In fact, in is not the first requirement of Erdogan about Gulen from his counterpart in Azerbaijan. In 2014 after his official visit to Baku he kept a “black list” with the names of Fetullah supporters. After his leaving a similar wave of closures took place when a network of educational institutions (Cag Ogretim Isletmeleri - Modern Education Enterprises), which was accused of secretly being connected with Gulen, were shut down and their leadership deported back to Turkey. Adherents to Gulen’s ideals — called nurçu or ‘nur’ists in Turkey and Azerbaijani — were also persecuted, despite the fact they were praying in private houses, without a mosque of their own. 

This time his (Erdogan’s) “appetite” has increased more. Official Baku without hesitation ceased the broadcasting operations of ANS tv (Azerbaijani News Service) for intent to air interview with Gulen. Few days later, they went even further by closing the best university (Qafqaz) in Azerbaijan claiming that it was founded by cleric. Recently, The General Prosecutor’s Office of Azerbaijan opened criminal case against Gulen supporters. Digressing from the subject I have to say that in this period government detained a lot of young activists who actually has no links to cleric.

Balansed foreign policy or balanced concessions ?

There can appear a logical question, why Azerbaian is obeying all of these requests unconditionally? One may say they are brother countries, they have historical, civil, economical ties and so on.. Of course, it is certainly true, however, we all know that if the dictators do not have own interests they can easily forget about brotherhood. In 2009, October 15 just after signed protocol between Turkey and Armenia Azerbaijani side reacted to this event immediately by removing Turkish flags from the “Shahid Alley”. Seeing such a blunder reaction by Baku to that minor event showed that situation can change any time regardless of historical ties.

The main reason behind implementation of Erdogan’s any requests in Azerbaijan is : “A stronger Erdogan means a stronger Aliyev”. They have well - established political relations and share the same views on many issues, including administration. Now they become more closer because Erdogan is going with the same way to dictatorship as his counterpart once did. This relationship is useful for both. Turkish president closed all roads of Azerbaijani opposition to Turkish media, and showed his support to Aliyev in international sphere. 

On the other hand Azeri president does not neglect his other “big brother” mr.Putin. Azerbaijan was the second-largest arms importer in Europe over the past 5 years, according to a report made by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Not surprisingly, 85% of its weapons Baku gets from Russia. Besides, Azerbaijan has almost stopped its integration to NATO an EU at Putin’s request. Even Lukashenko was able to get his “portion” from Aliyev. Azerbaijan gave 300mln$ credit to Belarus with 0,01%, while in Azerbaijan local people gets credit with 30/40%. Azerbaijani oil company Socar sells gas and oil to Georgia cheaper than their own people. Is this a balanced policy? Not of course, It is all based on privileges, compromises and serves to Aliyev’s personal interests. In last 12 years, “The Foundation of Haydar Aliyev” funded 32 projects over the Europe. Foundation built parks, repaired churches, monuments, while in Azerbaijan countless of schools, monument are needed to be restored. Does European rich countries need this? Of course not, but no one will say no to free money. Recently, in Italy Luca Volonte a prominent Italian political figure representing the country in the Council of Europe s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) faced charges over taking bribe from Azerbaijan. Moreover, France 2 tv channel investigation showed that 2 deputies of French parliament got a money from Azerbaijan for increasing reputation of Aliyev family in France. I can give a lot of examples in this way, but I think my point is clear here that it is not a balanced policy. It is a “Balanced privileges and bribes”

The worst effect of the failed coup

Closing of Gulen-linked organizations was not actually the worst damage failed coup brought to Azerbaijan. Just a few days after Ilham Aliyev appointed a referendum which is going to make his monarchy official. The amendments, which have already been cleared by Constitutional Court, would extend the president’s term in office from five to seven years. They would also create a powerful new first vice-president position and several other vice-presidencies. The amendments also allow the president to call snap elections and permit anyone over 18 to stand for parliament and president (now age limit is 35) bringing the lower age limit down from 25. (Considering the fact that Ilham Aliyev succeeded his father in this position, one can argue that he is preparing his son for presidency in future). Also he can stand for an unlimited number of terms after a disputed referendum in 2009 scrapped the two-term limit on presidential mandates. Anyone ever followed elections in Azerbaijan has no doubt that “Yes” vote will win with over 85-90%. It is certainly true there is no chance the same coup happen in Azerbaijan, but apparently president Aliyev is afraid of something, or he just wants to strengthen his power.

To sum up, as an Azerbaijani young activist I and other democratic part of my country have always seen the Turkey as an opened window for us to Europe. But now, I regretfully have to say that after the late incidents Turkey was drawn to political and religious chaos which removed them away from European values. The current state of democracy in Turkey getting worse day by day. So, apparently this will not bode well for democracy in Azerbaijan as well as in the region.

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Bu məqalə ilk dəfə Gürcüstanın "Observer" qəzetinin 22.08.2016-ci il 34 saylı nömrəsində çap edilmişdir.
This article was taken from Georgian bilingual newspaper - "Observer"s 34th edition published in 22.08.2016 

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The article reflect the opinions of the author